Is the $35 Tablet a Government Gimmick?

India's human resource ministry announced this week a "breakthrough" solar-powered tablet computer that would cost only $35 in "early 2011." Reports say the tablet was developed at various Indian universities. "We have made the breakthrough and are now ready to capture the market," said Mamta Varma, a spokeswoman for the human resource development ministry.

In the first phase of the rollout, a million tablets would be provided to university students. In later phases, the program would be expanded to primary and secondary students. Millions of students would be using these cheap tablets within a year.

Officials even hinted that in the future the price could drop to $10 per tablet.

The project appears to target a similar demographic and purpose as the One Laptop per Child program, which is still struggling to bring the cost of its nonsolar, non-touch-screen computer down to its goal of $100.

What's really going on

Indian politicians have discovered that announcing technological "breakthroughs" that leverage Indian engineering prowess to deliver computers to everybody helps get press and win votes. It's a cheap gimmick that works because of the gullibility of the media.

While the press pays attention to the Big Announcement, hardly any media outlets notice later when nothing ever comes of it. Why? Because a headline with "$35 tablet" in it brings traffic, eyeballs and readers, whereas a headline with "media duped again" brings only shame. So they go for the glory but omit the shame.

For example: In February last year, the Indian government announced a $10 to $20 laptop called the Sakshat. Like the $35 tablet, the Shaksat had 2GB of RAM, but details on other components were impossible to come by.

It was to be rolled out in six months and was to be used by millions of students across India, transforming the Indian educational system and economy. So, where is the Shaksat?

In 1999, a group of Indian scientists and engineers developed a low-cost computer for the poor called the Simputer. It was a Linux-based pen-and-touch tablet with text-to-speech capability. The Simputer was announced with great fanfare by the Indian government. The goal was to sell 50,000, but only 4,000 were ever sold.

Are you detecting a pattern here? Pandering politicians hold up a prototype and proclaim a "breakthrough." A new computer, developed by students and professors at India's prestigious engineering universities, has "cracked the code" for low-cost computing for the masses.

Very soon these devices will be pushed out to Indian students, transforming the educational levels of the country and providing the tools for Indian technological leadership in the future.

Everybody wants to believe this story. But that doesn't make it true.

Why the $35 Indian tablet will never exist

India itself doesn't build touch screens. They would have to be imported from China or Taiwan. The current price for this component alone exceeds $35. Like touch screens, most solar panels are also built in China. But even the cheapest ones powerful enough to charge a tablet battery are more expensive to manufacture than $35.

Unknown brand tablet being taken apart, exposing component parts Plus you need to pay for the 2GB of RAM, the case and the rest of the computer electronics. Even if you factor in Moore's Law and assume the absolute cheapest rock-bottom junk components, a solar touch tablet with 2GB of RAM cannot be built anytime soon for less than $100.

More to the point, no country in the world can build a cheaper computer than China can. The entire tech sector in China is optimized for ultra-low-cost manufacturing. All the engineering brilliance in India can't change that.

Even if Moore's Law unexpectedly accelerated, and India was miraculously able to build a $35 tablet next year, there would be 100 Chinese companies selling tablets for $20 and the Indian initiative would be pointless anyway.

This is largely what happened with the Simputer. By the time the consortium managed to get the device through the manufacturing process, the open market was producing devices that were far cheaper and better.

So in addition to this latest engineering "breakthrough" announced by the Indian government, they would also have to make a breakthrough in the ability of governments to produce cheaper computers than the open market, an event that has never before occurred -- and probably never will.